The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets. Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk. This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.
Comments on this week’s report:
- Treasury yield spreads were mixed with the 10-year minus 2-year spread dropping by 1 basis point to 0.17% and the 10-year minus 3-month rising 6 basis points to 0.28%.
- The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), dropped slightly as its year-over-year change decreased from 2.21% to 2.18%, yet it still remains comfortably above 2.00% with a low level of risk.
- The year-over-year change in amount of commercial and industrial loans spiked to 9.68% from 7.96% a month ago and remains at a low level of risk.
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three month moving average remains above zero, which indicates above-average economic growth and a low level of risk.