The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets. Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk. This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.
Comments on this week’s report:
- Treasury yield spreads widened slightly with the 10-year minus 2-year and the 10-year minus 3-month both increasing 1 basis point to 0.19% and 0.29%, respectively.
- Despite an increase in December’s Industrial production, year-over-year growth dropped from 4.06% to 3.95% and still remains at a low level of risk.
- Inflation, as measured by the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), remains slightly and comfortably above a 2.00% year-over-year growth rate.
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three month moving average remains above zero, which indicates above-average economic growth and a low level of risk.