The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets.  Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk.  This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury yield spreads remain historically narrow with the 10-year minus 2-year spread sitting at 0.16% and the 10-year minus 3-month spread sitting at 0.35%.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three month moving average increase from 0.12 to 0.16 and remains above zero, which indicates above-average economic growth and a low level of risk.
  • Inflation, as measured by the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), remains slightly and comfortably above a 2.00% year-over-year growth rate.
  • Due to the government shutdown some economic data in this report is being delayed, but will be updated when reported.
Please Note:  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.

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