The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets. Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk. This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.
Comments on this week’s report:
- Treasury yield spreads remain historically narrow with the 10-year minus 2-year spread sitting at 0.16% and the 10-year minus 3-month spread sitting at 0.35%.
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three month moving average increase from 0.12 to 0.16 and remains above zero, which indicates above-average economic growth and a low level of risk.
- Inflation, as measured by the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), remains slightly and comfortably above a 2.00% year-over-year growth rate.
- Due to the government shutdown some economic data in this report is being delayed, but will be updated when reported.