The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets. Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk. This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.
Comments on this week’s report:
- Treasury yield spreads narrowed with the 10-year minus 2-year spread dropping by 2 basis points to 0.18% and the 10-year minus 3-month dropping 12 basis points to 0.22%.
- The U.S. added more than expected jobs in December and increased its year-over-year change from 1.70% to 1.79% and remains at a low level of risk.
- Despite an increase in the number of jobs in December, the unemployment rate increased from 3.70% to 3.90% as the Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate also rose.
- Wage growth, as measured by Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Non-supervisory Employees, is also rising as its year-over-year change increased from 3.28% to 3.32%.
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three month moving average dropped from 0.23 in October to 0.12 in November, but still remains above zero (indicating above-average economic growth).