The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets. Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk. This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.
Comments on this week’s report:
- Interest rate spreads widened as the 10-year treasury yield jumped 7 basis points amid hawkish sentiment in the Federal Open Market Committee minutes.
- Housing starts dropped back down in September but was largely attributed to Hurricane Florence as housing starts in the South dropped 13.7%. Housing start risk still remains low.
- Industrial production increased from a rate of 4.86% to 5.14% and remains at a low level of risk.
- Layoffs and discharges spiked higher in August and caused it to reach a Moderate level of risk. However, it should be noted that layoffs and discharges tend to be volatile from month to month.
- Inflation, measured by the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains comfortably near the Fed’s 2.0% target.