The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets.  Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk.  This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

 

Comments on this week’s report:

  • An increase in nonfarm payrolls caused the unemployment rate to reach even closer to its all-time low. However, the labor force participation rate still remains moderately low.
  • Wages, measured by average hourly earnings, continues to grow at a sustainable rate.
  • The 10-year treasury yield jumped amid the positive employment report, causing treasury spreads to widen. However, spreads are still historically very narrow and should be closely monitored.
  • Inflation, measured by the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), remains comfortably near the Fed’s 2.0% target.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) remains above zero, indicating that the economy is expanding slightly above its historical average.

Please Note:  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.