The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets. Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk. This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.
Comments on this week’s report:
- An increase in nonfarm payrolls caused the unemployment rate to reach even closer to its all-time low. However, the labor force participation rate still remains moderately low.
- Wages, measured by average hourly earnings, continues to grow at a sustainable rate.
- The 10-year treasury yield jumped amid the positive employment report, causing treasury spreads to widen. However, spreads are still historically very narrow and should be closely monitored.
- Inflation, measured by the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), remains comfortably near the Fed’s 2.0% target.
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) remains above zero, indicating that the economy is expanding slightly above its historical average.