The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets.  Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk.  This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

 

Comments on this week’s report:

  • The spread between the 10-year treasury and the 3-month treasury dropped by 14 basis points to an even narrower 0.72%, while the spread between the 10-year and 2-year treasury was unchanged.
  • Inflation, measured by the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed down slightly but remains comfortably near the Fed’s 2.0% target.
  • The growth in industrial production slowed from a 5.60% annual growth rate to 4.11%, however its growth still shows a low amount of risk.
  • Business inventories picked up slightly and continues to grow at a sustainable rate of 4.40% year-over-year.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three month moving average remains above zero, a sign of above average economic growth.

Please Note:  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.