The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets.  Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk.  This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

 

Comments on this week’s report:

  • The spread between the 10-year treasury and the 3-month treasury dropped by 8 basis points to a very narrow 0.66%, while the spread between the 10-year and 2-year treasury was unchanged at 0.26%.
  • Housing starts rose less than expected in October, resulting in a year-over-year change of -2.92%.  However, housing starts are still indicating a low amount of risk.
  • New orders of durable goods also slowed down, decreasing from a 7.00% year-over-year change to 6.65%.  Despite the drop in growth there is still low indication of risk from durable goods orders.
  • University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment report dropped from 100.1 to 98.60 but still remains relatively high.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three month moving average remains above zero, a sign of above average economic growth.

Please Note:  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.

 

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