The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets. Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk. This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.
Comments on this week’s report:
- The spread between the 10-year treasury and the 3-month treasury dropped by 8 basis points to a very narrow 0.66%, while the spread between the 10-year and 2-year treasury was unchanged at 0.26%.
- Housing starts rose less than expected in October, resulting in a year-over-year change of -2.92%. However, housing starts are still indicating a low amount of risk.
- New orders of durable goods also slowed down, decreasing from a 7.00% year-over-year change to 6.65%. Despite the drop in growth there is still low indication of risk from durable goods orders.
- University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment report dropped from 100.1 to 98.60 but still remains relatively high.
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three month moving average remains above zero, a sign of above average economic growth.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.