The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets. Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk. This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.
Comments on this week’s report:
- Interest rate spreads narrowed slightly as the 10-year treasury yield saw a modest drop.
- The number of commercial and business loans increased from a year-over-year rate of 5.15% to 5.81%.
- The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index increased from -1.00 to -0.93, yet still remains historically very low.
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three month moving average remains above zero, a sign of above average economic growth.
- Inflation, measured by the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains comfortably near the Fed’s 2.0% target.