The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets. Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk. This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.
Comments on this week’s report:
- Treasury yield spreads narrowed sharply with the 10-year minus 2-year spread dropping 10 basis points to 0.13% and the 10-year minus 3-month dropping 15 basis points to 0.50%.
- The number of jobs created in November were less than expected and caused its year-over-year growth to drop from 1.70% to 1.66%. However, the unemployment rate remains at a very low 3.70%.
- Wage growth, measured by average hourly earnings, increased from a year-over-year change of 3.16% to 3.24%.
- Inflation, measured by core CPI and core PCE, remains comfortably near the Fed’s 2.00% target.
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three month moving average remains above zero, a sign of above average economic growth.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.