The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets.  Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk.  This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury yield spreads were little changed with the 10-year minus 2-year spread rising 1 basis point to 0.15%, and the 10-year minus 3-month dropping 5 basis points to 0.42%.
  • Housing starts picked up slightly from a month ago as its year-over-year change increased from -3.79% to -3.61%.  However, it seems to be losing some traction and has moved to a moderate level of risk.
  • The Composite Home Price Index also seems to be slowing down as its year-over-year change dropped from 5.26% to 5.06%, however, a 5.06% growth rate is still strong and shows low level of risk.
  • The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index inched closer to the Fed’s 2.0% target as its year-over-year growth increased from 1.82% to 1.88%.
  • New orders of durable goods saw a drop in its year-over-year growth as it decreased from 6.83% to 5.29%.  However, it is still growing at a relatively strong rate.
Please Note:  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.

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