The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets.  Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk.  This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.


Comments on this week’s report:

  • The spread between the 10-year treasury and the 3-month treasury was unchanged at 0.66%, while the spread between the 10-year and the 2-year treasury dropped by 3 basis points to 0.23%.
  • Growth in corporate profits have slowed but are still growing at a strong 5.91% year-over-year rate.
  • Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) also slowed from a year-over-year change of 1.94% to 1.78%.
  • The growth in the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Index has slowed down slightly but still shows no sign of risk.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three month moving average remains above zero, a sign of above average economic growth.

Please Note:  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.


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