The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets. Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk. This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.
Comments on this week’s report:
- Treasury yield spreads remain historically narrow with the 10-year minus 2-year spread sitting at 0.18% and the 10-year minus 3-month spread sitting at 0.26%.
- The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of inflation, dropped from 2.18% to 2.15% but still remains comfortably around the 2.00% target.
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three month moving average remains above zero, indicating improving economic conditions.
- The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index remains near all-time lows at -0.99 with a very low level of risk. Any reading below zero indicates below average financial stress.