The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets.  Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk.  This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury yield spreads remain historically narrow with the 10-year minus 2-year spread sitting at 0.18% and the 10-year minus 3-month spread sitting at 0.26%.
  • The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of inflation, dropped from 2.18% to 2.15% but still remains comfortably around the 2.00% target.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three month moving average remains above zero, indicating improving economic conditions.
  • The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index remains near all-time lows at -0.99 with a very low level of risk.  Any reading below zero indicates below average financial stress.
Please Note:  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.

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