The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets. Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk. This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.
Comments on this week’s report:
- Treasury yield spreads remain historically narrow with the 10-year minus 2-year spread sitting at 0.17% and the 10-year minus 3-month spread sitting at 0.29%.
- Total nonfarm payrolls increased by a significant 304,000 in January, increasing its year-over-year change from 1.81% to 1.90%, showing no signs of risk.
- Despite an increase in payrolls, the unemployment rate increased from 3.90% to 4.00% as the government shutdown left government workers without a paycheck.
- Year-over-year wage growth, measured by average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, dropped from 3.50% to 3.40% and still indicates a low level of risk.
- Growth in the composite home price index dropped from a year-over-year increase of 5.05% to 4.68% but still indicates a low level of risk.