The overall risk of the economy remains relatively low as most of the more prominent indicators listed show a low level of risk.  However,  a slowdown in recent jobs growth and a slight increase in the number of economic indicators that have a moderate level of risk warrants some attention.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury yield spreads widened but still remain historically narrow and flat as both the 10-year minus 2-year spread and 10-year minus 3-month spread sit at 0.17%.
  • Industrial production growth slowed slightly as its year-over-year growth rate decreased from 3.86% to 3.54%, but still shows no sign of economic risk.
  • The amount of commercial business loans issued continues to rise as its year-over-year growth rate increased from 4.71% to 4.84%.
  • The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of inflation, saw a slight decrease in its 12-month growth rate as it dropped form 2.15% to 2.18%, but still remains comfortably near 2.00%.
  • Year-over-year growth in new orders of durable goods jumped from 3.46% to 8.39% and still shows a low level of risk.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

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