The overall risk of the economy remains relatively low as most of the more prominent indicators listed show a low level of risk. However, a slowdown in recent jobs growth and a slight increase in the number of economic indicators that have a moderate level of risk warrants some attention.
Comments on this week’s report:
- Treasury yield spreads widened but still remain historically narrow and flat as both the 10-year minus 2-year spread and 10-year minus 3-month spread sit at 0.17%.
- Industrial production growth slowed slightly as its year-over-year growth rate decreased from 3.86% to 3.54%, but still shows no sign of economic risk.
- The amount of commercial business loans issued continues to rise as its year-over-year growth rate increased from 4.71% to 4.84%.
- The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of inflation, saw a slight decrease in its 12-month growth rate as it dropped form 2.15% to 2.18%, but still remains comfortably near 2.00%.
- Year-over-year growth in new orders of durable goods jumped from 3.46% to 8.39% and still shows a low level of risk.