The overall risk of the economy is moderately higher than it has more recently been as the treasury yield curve continues to flatten and the CFNAI three-month average drops below zero.  However,  GDP growth, industrial production growth, and rates of inflation continue to grow at sustainable rates.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury yield spreads narrowed as the 10-year minus 2-year spread dropped to 0.14% and the 10-year minus 3-month spread dropped to 0.11%.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average dropped from 0.00 to -0.18 as four of the five CFNAI’s composite indexes dropped below zero, raising its level of risk to “Moderate”.
  • The St. Louis Financial Stress Index inched slightly lower and remains near all-time lows as it dropped from -1.22 to -1.26, indicating no sign of financial stress and a low level of risk.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

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