The overall risk of the economy remains relatively low as most of the more prominent indicators listed show a low level of risk.  However,  a slowdown in recent jobs growth and a slight increase in the number of economic indicators that have a moderate level of risk warrants some attention.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury yield spreads widened but still remain historically narrow as the 10-year minus 2-year spread sits at 0.17% and the 10-year minus 3-month spread sits at 0.22%.
  • The U.S. added a marginal 20,000 jobs in February (as measured by total nonfarm payrolls) and reduced its year-over-year growth from 1.91% to 1.69%.  A low level of risk is still indicated for jobs growth, but it should still be closely monitored if its growth continues to slowdown.
  • Despite a slowdown in jobs growth, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.0% to 3.80% in February as government workers go back to the workforce after the government shutdown.
  • Wage growth, as measured by average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, continues to grow at a strong rate as its year-over-year rate increases from 3.31% to 3.48%.
  • Housing starts, which took a steep dive back in December, bounced back in January as its year-over-year growth increased from -14.30% to -7.80%.  However, the data still suggests a moderate level of risk as it struggles to have a positive year-over-year rates of change.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

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