Treasury spreads remain historically very narrow, inflation is growing at a sustainable rate, unemployment is near all-time lows, and the CFNAI 3-month moving average is below zero.  With this in mind, the economy appears to be at a moderately-low level of risk of going into a recession.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury spreads were little changed with the 10-year minus 2-year dropping one basis point to 0.16% and the 10-year minus 3-month widened by two basis points to 0.09%.  Spreads still remain historically very narrow.
  • The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of inflation, also saw little change in its year-over-year growth as it dropped from 2.08% to 2.04% and remains comfortably near 2.00%.
  • Industrial production growth dropped as its year-over-year rate fell from 3.47% to 2.77%, yet it still shows a low level of risk as it continues to grow at a fairly sustainable rate.
  • Growth in the amount of commercial business loans saw a moderate decrease as its year-over-year rate dropped from 10.33% to 10.01% and still shows no sign of high or moderate risk.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

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