Despite a slight increase in the number of economic indicators going from a “low” level of risk to a “moderate” level of risk, the overall economy continues to look healthy as GDP grows at a year-over-year rate of 3.21%, inflation remains near 2.00%, and unemployment remains near all-time lows.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury spreads narrow further as the 10-year minus 2-year spread drops from 0.22% to 0.19% and the 10-year minus 3-month spread drops from 0.09% to 0.04%.
  • The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of inflation, remains comfortably near 2.00% as it increased from 2.04% to 2.06%.
  • The year-over-year growth in the number of business loans issued dropped from 10.01% to 7.50% but still shows a low level of risk as its growth remains historically high.
  • The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index remains near all-time lows as it dropped from -1.34 to -1.35 (any reading below zero indicates low levels of financial stress).
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

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