Despite a slight increase in the number of economic indicators going from a “low” level of risk to a “moderate” level of risk, the overall economy continues to look healthy as GDP grows at a year-over-year rate of 3.21%, inflation remains near 2.00%, and unemployment remains near all-time lows.
Comments on this week’s report:
- Treasury spreads narrow further as the 10-year minus 2-year spread drops from 0.22% to 0.19% and the 10-year minus 3-month spread drops from 0.09% to 0.04%.
- The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of inflation, remains comfortably near 2.00% as it increased from 2.04% to 2.06%.
- The year-over-year growth in the number of business loans issued dropped from 10.01% to 7.50% but still shows a low level of risk as its growth remains historically high.
- The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index remains near all-time lows as it dropped from -1.34 to -1.35 (any reading below zero indicates low levels of financial stress).