With a handful of economic indicators indicating a moderate or high level of risk warrants some vigilance. However, the majority of the more prominent indicators such as GDP, unemployment, and inflation are showing low signs of risk.
Comments on this week’s report:
- The yield curve remains relatively flat as the 10-year minus 2-year spread sits at 0.25% while the 10-year minus 3-month is inverted at -0.11%, indicating a moderate to high level of risk.
- Industrial Production was growing at a concerning 0.87% last month but has since recovered and is now growing at a relatively strong year-over-year rate of 2.05%.
- Growth in total business inventories continues to grow at a stable year-over-year rate of 5.30%, up from 5.05% the month prior.
- The amount of commercial loans issued has slowed down slightly as its year-over-year rate falls from 7.62% to 7.41%, but still does not indicate any high degree of risk.