The U.S. economy continues to show a moderately low level of risk of a prolonged recession with treasury spreads historically narrow and CFNAI below zero, yet unemployment is near all-time lows and GDP is growing at a strong 3.18%.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • The spread between the 10-year and 3-month treasury yield remains inverted at -0.12% while the more closely watched 10-year minus 2-year spread remains historically narrow at 0.29%.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average rose from -0.37 to -0.17 and still indicates a moderate level of risk.
  • Growth in durable goods orders now indicates a high level of risk as its year-over-year growth rate continues to trend downward, dropping from -0.73% to -2.80%.
  • Despite the year-over-year growth in housing starts dropping from 1.10% to -4.73% it still indicates a low level of risk as its readings can be volatile from month to month.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!