The U.S. economy continues to show a moderately low level of risk of a prolonged recession with treasury spreads historically narrow and CFNAI below zero, yet unemployment is near all-time lows and GDP is growing at a strong 3.20%.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury spreads remain historically low with the 10-year minus 3-month inverted at -0.19% and the more closely watched 10-year minus 2-year at 0.15%.
  • The U.S. added 224,000 jobs in June, keeping its year-over-year growth rate at a steady 1.54% and showing no signs of risk.
  • The unemployment rate ticked up from 3.60% to 3.70%, but still remains near all-time lows.
  • Year-over-year wage growth, as measured by average hourly earnings, fell from 3.40% to 3.35%, but is still considered a strong pace.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

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