The U.S. economy continues to show a moderately low level of risk of a prolonged recession with treasury spreads historically narrow and CFNAI below zero, yet unemployment is near all-time lows and GDP is growing at a strong 3.20%.
Comments on this week’s report:
- Treasury spreads remain historically low with the 10-year minus 3-month inverted at -0.19% and the more closely watched 10-year minus 2-year at 0.15%.
- The U.S. added 224,000 jobs in June, keeping its year-over-year growth rate at a steady 1.54% and showing no signs of risk.
- The unemployment rate ticked up from 3.60% to 3.70%, but still remains near all-time lows.
- Year-over-year wage growth, as measured by average hourly earnings, fell from 3.40% to 3.35%, but is still considered a strong pace.