The U.S. economy continues to show a moderately low level of risk of a prolonged recession with treasury spreads historically narrow and CFNAI below zero, yet unemployment is near all-time lows and GDP is growing at a strong 3.20%.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury spreads remain historically low with the 10-year minus 3-month inverted at -0.18% and the more closely watched 10-year minus 2-year at 0.25%.
  • University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index rose from 97.20 to 100.00 further indicating low level of risk.
  • The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index remains near all-time lows at -1.25, indicating a very low level risk.
  • The core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index is growing at a relatively slow year-over-year rate of 1.60%, indicating a moderate level of risk.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

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