The overall economy is now indicating a more moderate level of risk of a recession as more prominent indicators show signs of a potential slowdown.  However, unemployment remains near all-time lows and real GDP is still growing at a fairly stable 2.29%.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury spreads narrowed as the 10-year minus 2-year falls to 0.21% and the 10-year minus 3-month falls back below zero to -0.02%.
  • Real GDP has slowed following the second quarter of 2019 as its year-over-year growth rate falls from 2.65% to 2.29%. If Real GDP were to trend any lower a moderate level of risk may be warranted.
  • Corporate profits now indicate a moderate level of risk as its year-over-year growth drops from 9.79% to -1.97% for the period ending March 31st, 2019.
  • New orders of durable goods recognized a much needed boost in June as its year-over-year rate rises from -3.74% to -1.64%. However, a high level of risk is still warranted unless new orders continue to rise.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

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