The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets. Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk. This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.
Comments on this week’s report:
- Treasury spreads continue to narrow to levels last seen prior to the 2008-2009 market crash.
- Housing starts are moderately low and took an unexpected drop in July. However, housing start’s 3-year trend is slightly upward.
- Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), remains comfortably near the Fed’s 2.0% target.
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) remains above zero, indicating that the economy is expanding slightly above its historical average.
- The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index is near its all-time low, indicating a very low amount of financial market stress.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.