The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets. Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk. This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.
Comments on this week’s report:
- In light of an increase in the Federal Funds Rate treasury yield spreads narrowed, but only by one basis point. Spreads are still historically and should be closely monitored going forward.
- Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), remains comfortably near the Fed’s 2.0% target.
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) remains above zero, indicating that the economy is expanding slightly above its historical average.
- The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index is near its all-time low, indicating a very low amount of financial market stress.
- Durable goods orders rose in August resulting in a strong year-over-year increase of 11.83% (i.e. a signal of strong economic growth).