The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets.  Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk.  This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

 

Comments on this week’s report:

  • In light of an increase in the Federal Funds Rate treasury yield spreads narrowed, but only by one basis point. Spreads are still historically and should be closely monitored going forward.
  • Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), remains comfortably near the Fed’s 2.0% target.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) remains above zero, indicating that the economy is expanding slightly above its historical average.
  • The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index is near its all-time low, indicating a very low amount of financial market stress.
  • Durable goods orders rose in August resulting in a strong year-over-year increase of 11.83% (i.e. a signal of strong economic growth).

 

Please Note:  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.