Skip to main content Skip to search

Archives for Economic Briefing Report

Economic Briefing Report

The overall economy is now indicating a more moderate level of risk of a recession as more prominent indicators show signs of a potential slowdown.  However, unemployment remains near all-time lows and real GDP is still growing at a fairly stable 2.29%.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury spreads narrowed as the 10-year minus 2-year falls to 0.21% and the 10-year minus 3-month falls back below zero to -0.02%.
  • Real GDP has slowed following the second quarter of 2019 as its year-over-year growth rate falls from 2.65% to 2.29%. If Real GDP were to trend any lower a moderate level of risk may be warranted.
  • Corporate profits now indicate a moderate level of risk as its year-over-year growth drops from 9.79% to -1.97% for the period ending March 31st, 2019.
  • New orders of durable goods recognized a much needed boost in June as its year-over-year rate rises from -3.74% to -1.64%. However, a high level of risk is still warranted unless new orders continue to rise.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Read more

Economic Briefing Report

The overall risk of the U.S. economy to experience a near-term recession remains moderately low.  However, narrow treasury spreads, a slowdown in Industrial Production, and lower trending CFNAI indicate that the U.S. economy may be entering a late-cycle phase.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury spreads were little changed on the week with the 10-year minus 2-year falling from 0.26% to 0.25% and the 10-year minus 3-month increasing from -0.02% to 0.02%.
  • The CFNAI three-month moving average extends its streaks of below zero readings to five (months) as it rises from -0.27 to -0.26, which currently indicates a moderate level of risk.
  • U.S. housing starts dropped by nearly 1.0% in June while its year-over-year growth rate jumped from -5.03% to 6.19% and currently indicates a low-level of risk, however it should be noted that housing starts tend to be volatile.
  • The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress index continues to trend towards an all-time low as it falls from -1.38 to -1.36 and currently indicates a very low level of risk.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Read more

Economic Briefing Report

Industrial production has shown some signs of weakness as of late as its year-over-year growth rate slows.  However, this could be partly attributed to the grounding of the Boeing 737, which has experienced two crashes since the middle of 2018.  Nonetheless, the overall health of the economy remains relatively strong with unemployment near all-time lows and GDP growing at a strong 3.20%, yet does show some signs of slowing in the CFNAI three-month average and industrial production.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury spreads have widened but still remain historically very narrow with the 10-year minus 2-year sitting at 0.26% and the 10-year minus 3-month sitting at -0.07%.
  • Industrial production has slowed as its year-over-year growth rate dropped from 2.12% to 1.32% and now indicates a moderate level of risk.
  • The core Consumer Price Index’s (CPI) has grown at a stable rate of 2.13% over the past year, up from 1.99% a month ago.
  • The amount of commercial loans being issued has slowed as its year-over-year growth rate dropped from 7.39% to 6.78%, yet still indicates a low level of risk.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Read more

Economic Briefing Report

The U.S. economy continues to show a moderately low level of risk of a prolonged recession with treasury spreads historically narrow and CFNAI below zero, yet unemployment is near all-time lows and GDP is growing at a strong 3.20%.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury spreads remain historically low with the 10-year minus 3-month inverted at -0.19% and the more closely watched 10-year minus 2-year at 0.15%.
  • The U.S. added 224,000 jobs in June, keeping its year-over-year growth rate at a steady 1.54% and showing no signs of risk.
  • The unemployment rate ticked up from 3.60% to 3.70%, but still remains near all-time lows.
  • Year-over-year wage growth, as measured by average hourly earnings, fell from 3.40% to 3.35%, but is still considered a strong pace.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Read more

Economic Briefing Report

The U.S. economy continues to show a moderately low level of risk of a prolonged recession with treasury spreads historically narrow and CFNAI below zero, yet unemployment is near all-time lows and GDP is growing at a strong 3.20%.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury spreads remain historically low with the 10-year minus 3-month inverted at -0.18% and the more closely watched 10-year minus 2-year at 0.25%.
  • University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index rose from 97.20 to 100.00 further indicating low level of risk.
  • The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index remains near all-time lows at -1.25, indicating a very low level risk.
  • The core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index is growing at a relatively slow year-over-year rate of 1.60%, indicating a moderate level of risk.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Read more

Economic Briefing Report

The U.S. economy continues to show a moderately low level of risk of a prolonged recession with treasury spreads historically narrow and CFNAI below zero, yet unemployment is near all-time lows and GDP is growing at a strong 3.18%.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • The spread between the 10-year and 3-month treasury yield remains inverted at -0.12% while the more closely watched 10-year minus 2-year spread remains historically narrow at 0.29%.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average rose from -0.37 to -0.17 and still indicates a moderate level of risk.
  • Growth in durable goods orders now indicates a high level of risk as its year-over-year growth rate continues to trend downward, dropping from -0.73% to -2.80%.
  • Despite the year-over-year growth in housing starts dropping from 1.10% to -4.73% it still indicates a low level of risk as its readings can be volatile from month to month.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Read more

Economic Briefing Report

With a handful of economic indicators indicating a moderate or high level of risk warrants some vigilance.  However, the majority of the more prominent indicators such as GDP, unemployment, and inflation are showing low signs of risk.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • The yield curve remains relatively flat as the 10-year minus 2-year spread sits at 0.25% while the 10-year minus 3-month is inverted at -0.11%, indicating a moderate to high level of risk.
  • Industrial Production was growing at a concerning 0.87% last month but has since recovered and is now growing at a relatively strong year-over-year rate of 2.05%.
  • Growth in total business inventories continues to grow at a stable year-over-year rate of 5.30%, up from 5.05% the month prior.
  • The amount of commercial loans issued has slowed down slightly as its year-over-year rate falls from 7.62% to 7.41%, but still does not indicate any high degree of risk.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Read more

Economic Briefing Report

The overall risk of the economy remains relatively low, as such indicators as unemployment, GDP, and inflation remain at healthy levels.  However, some indicators such as treasury spreads, industrial production, corporate profits, and CFNAI indicate things could be slowing down.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • The yield curve remains relatively flat as the 10-year minus 2-year spread sits at 0.25% while the 10-year minus 3-month is inverted at -0.14%, indicating a moderate to high level of risk.
  • Job growth, as measured by total nonfarm payrolls, slowed down as its year-over-year growth rate dropped from 1.71% to 1.58%, however it still indicates a low level of risk. Meanwhile the unemployment rate remains near all-time lows at 3.6%.
  • The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of retail inflation, dropped from 2.06% to 1.99% yet still remains comfortably near 2.0% and shows no sign of risk.
  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has been trending lower over the past year but still remains relatively high and shows no immediate sign of risk.
  • Corporate profits are slowing as its year-over-year growth rate sits at a relatively low 1.64%. Should growth in corporate profits continue to slow, a moderate or high level of risk may be warranted.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Read more

Economic Briefing Report

More economic indicators are now indicating a moderate level of (and some a high level of) risk as what is anticipated to be a prolonged trade war between the U.S. and China weighs on such indicators as Industrial Production, New Orders of Durable Goods, and Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Production and Income.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • The spread between the 10-year treasury yield and the 2-year treasury yield remains vary narrow at 0.19%, while the 10-year minus 3-month spread is inverted at -0.21% and indicates a high level of risk.
  • Real GDP (which is adjusted for inflation) was revised slightly downward but continues to grow at a strong year-over-year rate of 3.18%, and does not indicate any sign of risk.
  • Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), a measure of inflation, continues to grow at a relatively low year-over-year rate of 1.57% when compared to the Fed’s 2.0% target, and indicates a moderate level of risk.
  • Corporate profits are growing at a very strong 11.15% year-over-year rate, however, this may be overstated due to the -12.70% drop it experienced a year ago (as indicated in its 3-year trend).
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Read more

Economic Briefing Report

As what is anticipated to be a prolonged trade war between the U.S. and China, economic indicators such as Industrial Production, Durable Goods Orders, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Production and Income move from a low level of risk to moderate or even high level of risk (for Industrial Production).  However, some of the more prominent indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment still indicate a low level of risk.

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury spreads remain historically very narrow as the 10-year minus 2-year sits at 0.18% and the 10-year minus 3-month spread sits at 0.0%.
  • Growth in new orders of durable goods has changed from a low to moderate level of risk as its year-over-year rate of change drops from 0.82% to -0.05%.
  • The St. Louis Financial Stress Index remains near all-time lows at -1.25 (readings below zero indicate below average financial stress) and does not show any sign of risk.
  • The Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Index continues to grow at a sustainable 2.63% and currently indicates a low level of risk.
Please Note: Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Read more