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Archives for Economic Briefing Report

Economic Briefing Report

 

The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets.  Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk.  This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

 

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Interest rate spreads widened as the 10-year treasury yield jumped 7 basis points amid hawkish sentiment in the Federal Open Market Committee minutes.
  • Housing starts dropped back down in September but was largely attributed to Hurricane Florence as housing starts in the South dropped 13.7%.  Housing start risk still remains low.
  • Industrial production increased from a rate of 4.86% to 5.14% and remains at a low level of risk.
  • Layoffs and discharges spiked higher in August and caused it to reach a Moderate level of risk. However, it should be noted that layoffs and discharges tend to be volatile from month to month.
  • Inflation, measured by the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains comfortably near the Fed’s 2.0% target.

Please Note:  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.
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Economic Briefing Report

 

The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets.  Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk.  This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

 

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Despite a large increase in treasury yields, spreads remained virtually unchanged with only the 10-year and 3-month spread narrowing by 4 basis points.
  • Inflation, measured by the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), slightly slowed down from the month prior but still remains comfortably near the Fed’s 2.0% target.
  • Total business inventories experienced a moderate drop from the month prior but still remains at a comfortable level.
  • Commercial and industrial loans also experienced a moderate decrease from the month prior yet still indicates a low amount of risk.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) remains above zero, indicating that the economy is expanding slightly above its historical average.

Please Note:  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.
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Economic Briefing Report

 

The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets.  Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk.  This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

 

Comments on this week’s report:

  • An increase in nonfarm payrolls caused the unemployment rate to reach even closer to its all-time low. However, the labor force participation rate still remains moderately low.
  • Wages, measured by average hourly earnings, continues to grow at a sustainable rate.
  • The 10-year treasury yield jumped amid the positive employment report, causing treasury spreads to widen. However, spreads are still historically very narrow and should be closely monitored.
  • Inflation, measured by the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), remains comfortably near the Fed’s 2.0% target.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) remains above zero, indicating that the economy is expanding slightly above its historical average.

Please Note:  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.
Read more

Economic Briefing Report

 

The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets.  Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk.  This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

 

Comments on this week’s report:

  • In light of an increase in the Federal Funds Rate treasury yield spreads narrowed, but only by one basis point. Spreads are still historically and should be closely monitored going forward.
  • Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), remains comfortably near the Fed’s 2.0% target.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) remains above zero, indicating that the economy is expanding slightly above its historical average.
  • The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index is near its all-time low, indicating a very low amount of financial market stress.
  • Durable goods orders rose in August resulting in a strong year-over-year increase of 11.83% (i.e. a signal of strong economic growth).

 

Please Note:  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.
Read more

Economic Briefing Report

 

The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets.  Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk.  This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

 

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury spreads widened but are still at alarmingly narrow levels that were last seen prior to the 2008-2009 market crash.
  • Housing starts bounced back after taking an unexpected dive in July.
  • Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), remains comfortably near the Fed’s 2.0% target.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) remains above zero, indicating that the economy is expanding slightly above its historical average.
  • The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index is near its all-time low, indicating a very low amount of financial market stress.

Please Note:  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.
Read more

Economic Briefing Report

 

The Milwaukee Company’s Economic Briefing Report is a weekly summary of economic indicators that have the potential of impacting stock and bond markets.  Readings associated with a high level of risk for a number of the indicators listed below could suggest an elevated risk of a U.S. recession, and therefore a higher level of market risk.  This Report is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a substitute for independent research and personalized investment advice.

 

Comments on this week’s report:

  • Treasury spreads continue to narrow to levels last seen prior to the 2008-2009 market crash.
  • Housing starts are moderately low and took an unexpected drop in July.  However, housing start’s 3-year trend is slightly upward.
  • Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), remains comfortably near the Fed’s 2.0% target.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) remains above zero, indicating that the economy is expanding slightly above its historical average.
  • The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index is near its all-time low, indicating a very low amount of financial market stress.


Please Note:  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, this content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.

Read more