Skip to main content Skip to search

Archives for Market Week in Review

The Market Week in Review

The U.S. stock market ended the week little changed with a conflicting mix of economic data. However, since the beginning of the year the stock market has moved largely upward with the S&P 500 posting its best first half since 1997 as expectations for lower interest rates have mitigated trade concerns. That said, interest rates have dropped in the same time frame, with the 10-year treasury yield falling from 2.66% at the beginning of the year to 2.00% today. However, the spread between the 10-year treasury and the 2-year treasury yield has widened from 0.16% to 0.27% since the beginning of the year, but still remains historically very narrow. The price of gold has risen 8.4% year-to-date to $1,413 an ounce primarily due to the expectation of lower interest rates, while the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has been virtually unchanged at 96.2. The price of crude oil has risen 29.0% year-to-date to $58.17 a barrel as production of the oversupplied commodity has since slowed down.

Index               Started Week         Ended Week         Change         Change %         YTD %
DJIA 26,719.1326,599.96-119.17-0.45%14.03%
Nasdaq 8,031.71 8,006.24-25.47-0.32%20.66%
S&P 500 2,950.46 2,941.76-8.70-0.29%17.35%
Russell 2000 1,549.63 1566.5716.941.09%16.17%

This Week’s Economic Highlights

  • New home sales dropped to 7.8% in April to a five-month low of 626,000.  Over the past year new home sales are down 3.7% while the median sales price is down 2.7% to $308,000.
  • Durable goods orders fell by 1.3% in May for the third consecutive monthly drop as the suspension of the Boeing 737 continues to weigh on orders.  However, if transportation orders (i.e. planes, trains, and automobiles) are excluded, orders actually rose 0.3%.
  • Initial unemployment claims rose by 10,000 to 217,000 for the week ending June 22nd.  However, the less volatile four-week moving average only rose 2,250 to 221,250.  Despite the weekly rise, initial claims remain historically very low.
  • Consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of the economy (i.e. GDP), rose by a strong 0.4% in May.  Personal income also rose by a strong 0.5%, after rising by the same amount the month prior.
  • The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a measure of inflation, rose by a moderate 0.2% in May.  Over the past year PCE is up only a slight 1.5%, well below the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target.

Quote

– “Loss aversion is the idea that we regret losses twice as much as gains make us feel good.  Looking at the stock market on a daily basis means you’ll basically feel terrible every single day, since the pain from loss will outweigh the joy from gains.”

– Ben Carlson

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Important Disclosures:  Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly from The Market Commentator℠, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in The Market Commentator℠ serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from The Milwaukee Company™.

In addition, The Market Commentator℠ may contain links to articles or other information that are contained on a third-party website.  The Milwaukee Company does not endorse or accept responsibility for the content, or the use, of the website.  The Milwaukee Company assumes no liability for any inaccuracies, errors or omissions in or from any data or other information provided on the pages.  Thank you.

Read more

The Market Week in Review

The U.S. stock market finished the week largely upward amid the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged and their willingness to potentially lower them.  Consequently, interest rates also moved lower as the 10-year treasury yield fell from 2.09% to 2.07%.  The spread between the 10-year treasury yield and the 2-year treasury yield widened from 0.27% to 0.29%, but still remains relatively narrow.  The price of gold spiked 4.4% to $1,404 an ounce while the U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell from 97.55 to 96.17, and can also be attributed to the Fed’s interest rate decision.  The price of crude oil also recognized a large increase of 9.7% to $57.60 a barrel on fears of a potential U.S. military attack on Iran.  Such an attack would disrupt the highly oil-dependent country’s output in what is currently an oversupplied market.

Index               Started Week         Ended Week         Change         Change %         YTD %
DJIA 26,719.1326,599.96-119.17-0.45%14.03%
Nasdaq 8,031.71 8,006.24-25.47-0.32%20.66%
S&P 500 2,950.46 2,941.76-8.70-0.29%17.35%
Russell 2000 1,549.63 1566.5716.941.09%16.17%

This Week’s Economic Highlights

  • U.S. housing starts fell slightly in May to 0.9% as it dropped from 1.28 million to 1.27 million.  Over the past year, housing starts are down 4.7%.  However, U.S. housing permits (a predicter of future housing starts) rose by 0.3% in May and is down 0.5% over the past year.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that they will leave the Fed’s fund rate unchanged at the 2.25% – 2.50%.  The FOMC decided to leave the benchmark rate unchanged as they noted that the labor market “remains strong” and the economy continues to expand at a “Moderate” pace.  Additionally, the FOMC will “closely monitor” the economy in light of “uncertainties” surrounding international trade and waning inflation.
  • Initial unemployment claims fell from 222,000 to 216,000 for the week ending June 15th.  However, the more stable four-week average of initial claims edged slightly higher to 218,750.  Continuing unemployment claims, which lag initial claims by a week, fell by 37,000 to 1.66 million.
  • The Philly Fed manufacturing index fell sharply from 16.6 to 0.3 in June.  Although any reading above zero indicates improving manufacturing conditions, the index has been slowly trending downwards over the past few years.

Tidbit

According to CoreLogic, a real estate data company, investors accounted for approximately 11.3% of all home purchases in 2018, its highest since 1999.  Additionally, investors accounted for nearly 20% of all starter home purchases, making it more difficult to enter the housing market.

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Important Disclosures:  Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly from The Market Commentator℠, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in The Market Commentator℠ serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from The Milwaukee Company™.

In addition, The Market Commentator℠ may contain links to articles or other information that are contained on a third-party website.  The Milwaukee Company does not endorse or accept responsibility for the content, or the use, of the website.  The Milwaukee Company assumes no liability for any inaccuracies, errors or omissions in or from any data or other information provided on the pages.  Thank you.

Read more

The Market Week in Review

The U.S. stock market finished marginally higher as investors digest a mix of economic data.  Interest rates were also little changed as the benchmark 10-year treasury yield increased from 2.08% to 2.09%.  Meanwhile the spread between the 10-year treasury yield and the 2-year treasury yield fell from 0.29% to 0.27%. The price of gold was virtually unchanged at $1,345 an ounce, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose from 96.59 to 97.55 amid strong reports on retail sales.  The price of crude oil continues to fall as it drops 2.9% to $52.51 a barrel as growing oversupply of the commodity swamps its demand.  

Index               Started Week         Ended Week         Change         Change %         YTD %
DJIA 26,719.1326,599.96-119.17-0.45%14.03%
Nasdaq 8,031.71 8,006.24-25.47-0.32%20.66%
S&P 500 2,950.46 2,941.76-8.70-0.29%17.35%
Russell 2000 1,549.63 1566.5716.941.09%16.17%

This Week’s Economic Highlights

  • The Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, increased by 0.1% in May.  Given the moderate monthly increase, over the past year PPI has slowed from 2.2% to 1.8%.  However, core PPI (which excludes the volatile food and energy prices) rose by a strong 0.4% in May, and increased its annual rate from 2.2% to 2.3%.
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of retail inflation, also increased by 0.1% in May.  Over the past year CPI has grown at a rate of 1.8%, down from 2.0% the month prior.  Core CPI (which excludes the volatile food and energy prices) also rose by 0.1% in May, while its annual growth rate fell from 2.0% to 1.8%.
  • Initial unemployment claims rose by a slight 3,000 to 222,000 for the week ending May 8th, while the more stable four-week average increased by 2,500 to 217,750.  Continuing unemployment claims, which lag initial claims by a week, rose by an even slighter 2,000 to 1.69 million.  Both initial and continuing unemployment claims remain near historic lows.
  • U.S. retail sales jumped by a strong 0.5% in May with broad gains in all areas of the retail sector.  That said, excluding automobile sales (which consists of a large portion of retail sales and has inconsistent month-to-month demand), retail sales still rose by 0.5%.
  • U.S. industrial production increased by a much needed 0.4% in May after falling by a cumulative 1.21% over the prior five months.  Capacity utilization also edged slightly higher, increasing from 77.9% to 78.1%.

Quote

“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.  One should, for example, be able to see that things are hopeless yet be determined to make them otherwise.”

– F. Scott Fitzgerald

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Important Disclosures:  Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly from The Market Commentator℠, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in The Market Commentator℠ serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from The Milwaukee Company™.

In addition, The Market Commentator℠ may contain links to articles or other information that are contained on a third-party website.  The Milwaukee Company does not endorse or accept responsibility for the content, or the use, of the website.  The Milwaukee Company assumes no liability for any inaccuracies, errors or omissions in or from any data or other information provided on the pages.  Thank you.

Read more

The Market Week in Review

The U.S. stock market rallied back from its near one-month slump as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed openness to cut interest rates if needed over trade tensions.  That said, the 10-year treasury yield (a benchmark for interest rates) fell from 2.14% the week prior to 2.08% this week.  Over the past year the 10-year treasury yield has fallen from 2.94% to 2.08%.  Meanwhile the spread between the 10-year treasury yield and the 2-year treasury yield jumped from 0.16% the week prior to 0.29% this week, however it is still historically very narrow.  The price of gold jumped 2.6% to $1,345 an ounce while the U.S. Dollar index fell from 97.74 to 96.59, which can also be attributed to Chairman Powell’s comments.  The price of crude oil increased by 1.8% to $54.09 a barrel but is still down 13.3% over the past month due to concerns of global growth and trade.

Index               Started Week         Ended Week         Change         Change %         YTD %
DJIA 24,815.0425,983.941,168.904.71%11.39%
Nasdaq 7,453.157,742.10288.953.88%16.68%
S&P 500 2,752.062,873.34121.284.41%14.62%
Russell 2000 1,465.491,514.3948.903.34%12.30%

This Week’s Economic Highlights

  • The ISM manufacturing index was little changed as it dropped from 52.8% in April to 52.1% in May.  Any reading above 50% indicates that manufacturing companies are expending, however the current reading of 52.1% is its lowest in two and a half years.
  • U.S. factory orders fell by 0.8% in April after jumping 1.3% the month prior as demand for durable goods weakens.  Year-over-year factory orders are up a marginal 1.2%.
  • The ISM nonmanufacturing index increased from 55.5% in April to 56.9% in May.  Any reading above 50% indicates that service-orientated companies (i.e. banks, retailers, restaurants, etc.) are expanding and any reading above 55% is considered exceptional.
  • Initial unemployment claims were unchanged at 218,000 for the week ending June 1st, however its more stable four-week average fell by 2,500 to 215,000.  Continuing unemployment claims, which lags initial claims by a week, rose by 20,000 to 1.68 million.  Both initial and continuing claims sit near all-time lows.
  • The U.S. trade deficit dropped by 2.1% in April to $50.8 billion.  More specifically, exports fell by 2.2% to $206.8 billion while imports also fell by 2.2% to $257.6.  Despite the drop in the overall trade deficit, the trade deficit in goods between the U.S. and China jumped by 30% to $26.9 billion, but is still on track to be lower than it was at the end of 2018.
  • The U.S. added a relatively low 75,000 jobs in May while the unemployment rate remained steady at a 49-year low of 3.6%.  Wage growth, as measured by average hourly earnings, also showed some signs of slowing as it rose by a moderate 0.2% to $27.83 an hour.  Over the trailing twelve months, wage growth fell from 3.2% to 3.1%.

Quote

“He is careful of what he reads, for that is what he will write.  He is careful of what he learns, for that is what he will know.”

– Annie Dillard

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Important Disclosures:  Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly from The Market Commentator℠, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in The Market Commentator℠ serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from The Milwaukee Company™.
 
In addition, The Market Commentator℠ may contain links to articles or other information that are contained on a third party website.  The Milwaukee Company does not endorse or accept responsibility for the content, or the use, of the website.  The Milwaukee Company assumes no liability for any inaccuracies, errors or omissions in or from any data or other information provided on the pages.  Thank you.
Read more

The Market Week in Review

The U.S. stock market finished the week considerably lower as a significant drop in interest rates and further concerns on U.S. trade policy drove the market lower.  That said, interest rates took a noticeable drop as the 10-year treasury yield fell from 2.32% to 2.14% as demand for the safe haven security increases amid President Trump’s new tariffs on Mexico.  However, the spread between the 10-year treasury yield and the 2-year treasury yield remained unchanged at 0.16% as the short-term yield also fell.  The price of gold jumped over 2.0% to $1,311 an ounce, which can also be attributed to the recent U.S. trade policy developments.  However, the U.S. dollar index, which typically moves inversely to the price of gold, actually rose slightly from 97.58 to 97.74 as it strengthens relative to its peers.  The price of crude oil continues to fall as it drops 9.8% to $53.12 a barrel and is down over 12.0% so far this month.

Index               Started Week         Ended Week         Change         Change %         YTD %
DJIA 24,815.0425,983.941,168.904.71%11.39%
Nasdaq 7,453.157,742.10288.953.88%16.68%
S&P 500 2,752.062,873.34121.284.41%14.62%
Russell 2000 1,465.491,514.3948.903.34%12.30%

This Week’s Economic Highlights

  • Initial unemployment claims rose a slight 3,000 to 215,000 for the week ending May 25th.  However, the less volatile (and thereby more accurate) four-week average of initial claims fell by 3,750 to 216,750.  The number of continuing unemployment claims, which lags initial claims by a week, fell by 26,000 to 1.66 million.
  • After jumping over 1.0% in March, consumer spending continues to rise as it increases by 0.3% in April.  Meanwhile personal income rose by a larger margin of 0.5% in April, yet only increased by a moderate 0.1% the month prior.
  • The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a measure of inflation, rose 0.3% in April.  Core PCE, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%.  Over the past year PCE has risen 1.5% while core PCE has risen 1.6%, both slightly below the Fed’s target of 2.0%.

Quote

“Hedging involves taking less risk by giving up big gains to avoid big losses.  What takes skill is knowing exactly how to find the right balance between risk and reward, or knowing exactly how much risk to take.”

-Allison Schrager

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Important Disclosures:  Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly from The Market Commentator℠, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in The Market Commentator℠ serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from The Milwaukee Company™.
 
In addition, The Market Commentator℠ may contain links to articles or other information that are contained on a third party website.  The Milwaukee Company does not endorse or accept responsibility for the content, or the use, of the website.  The Milwaukee Company assumes no liability for any inaccuracies, errors or omissions in or from any data or other information provided on the pages.  Thank you.
Read more

The Market Week in Review

The U.S. stock market continues to trend lower as a trade war between the U.S. and China weighs on investor confidence.  Interest rates also moved lower as the 10-year treasury yield falls from 2.39% to 2.32%.  The spread between the 10-year treasury yield and the 2-year treasury yield narrows and dropped from 0.21% to 0.16%.  Amid the expected prolonged trade standoff between the U.S. and China, the price of gold increased by 0.54% to $1,284 an ounce as investors flea to the safe haven metal.  Meanwhile the U.S. Dollar index, which tends to move inversely to the price of gold, fell from 97.99 to 97.58.  The price of crude oil dropped by 6.10% to $58.93 a barrel as there was a significant repricing of risk due to the U.S. and China trade dispute.

Index               Started Week         Ended Week         Change         Change %         YTD %
DJIA 24,815.0425,983.941,168.904.71%11.39%
Nasdaq 7,453.157,742.10288.953.88%16.68%
S&P 500 2,752.062,873.34121.284.41%14.62%
Russell 2000 1,465.491,514.3948.903.34%12.30%

This Week’s Economic Highlights

  • U.S. existing home sales fell by 0.4% in April to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 5.19 million.  As a result, existing homes sales are down 4.4% from a year ago, an indication of a potential slowdown in the housing market.  The median sales price of existing homes is up 3.6% from a year ago at $267,300.
  • The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 1st showed that members are comfortable with their “patient” stance on interest rate hikes.  Most members also agreed that this patient stance could last for “some time”, indicating the rate hikes are not likely in the near future.
  • Initial unemployment claims were little changed as it dropped from 212,000 to 211,000 for the week ending May 18th.  However, the more stable four week moving average of initial claims fell by 4,750 to 220,250.  Continuing unemployment claims, which lags initial unemployment claims by a week, was virtually unchanged at 1.68 million yet is down nearly 100,000 from a year ago.
  • U.S. new home sales dropped by 6.9% in April to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 673,000, after jumping nearly 28% since the beginning of the year.  Over the trailing one-year, new home sales are up 6.7% while the median sales price is up 8.0% to $342,200.
  • Durable goods orders fell by 2.1% in April after increasing 1.7% the month prior as falling demand for Boeing airplanes takes effect.  Excluding the inconsistent and volatile month-to-month demand for transportation durable goods (i.e. planes, trains, and automobiles), orders were unchanged.

Quote

“Those who sow virtue reap honor.”

– Leonardo de Vinci

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Important Disclosures:  Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly from The Market Commentator℠, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in The Market Commentator℠ serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from The Milwaukee Company™.
 
In addition, The Market Commentator℠ may contain links to articles or other information that are contained on a third party website.  The Milwaukee Company does not endorse or accept responsibility for the content, or the use, of the website.  The Milwaukee Company assumes no liability for any inaccuracies, errors or omissions in or from any data or other information provided on the pages.  Thank you.
Read more

The Market Week in Review

The U.S. stock market continues to move lower as concerns of a trade war between the U.S. and China weighs on investor confidence.  Interest rates also moved lower as the 10-year treasury yield dropped from 2.45% to 2.39%.  The spread between the 10-year treasury yield and the 2-year treasury yield was little changed as it increased from 0.19% to 0.21%, but still remains historically very narrow.  The price of gold fell by 0.71% while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) increased from 97.32 to 97.99 amid upbeat economic data and an increase in consumer sentiment.  The price of crude oil finished the week nearly 2.0% higher at $62.76 a barrel amid a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s oil production facilities.

Index               Started Week         Ended Week         Change         Change %         YTD %
DJIA 24,815.0425,983.941,168.904.71%11.39%
Nasdaq 7,453.157,742.10288.953.88%16.68%
S&P 500 2,752.062,873.34121.284.41%14.62%
Russell 2000 1,465.491,514.3948.903.34%12.30%

This Week’s Economic Highlights

  • After jumping 1.7% in March, U.S. retail sales fell by 0.2% in April as automobile and internet sales moved lower.
  • U.S. industrial production fell by 0.5% in April as capacity utilization falls from 78.8% to 77.9%.  Excluding the heavily weighted automobile industry, industrial production still moved lower but by a smaller margin of 0.3%.
  • Initial unemployment claims fell from 228,000 to 212,000 for the week ending May 11th and remains historically very low.  Continuing unemployment claims, which lag initial claims by a week, fell by 28,000 to 1.66 million and also remains historically very low.
  • Housing starts jumped nearly 6.0% in April to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.23 million.  Housing permits, which is a forward-looking indication of housing starts, increased by 1.0% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.3 million.

Quote

“What you should learn when you make a mistake because you did not anticipate something is that the world is difficult to anticipate.  That’s the correct lesson to learn from surprises: that the world is surprising.”

– Daniel Kahneman

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Important Disclosures:  Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly from The Market Commentator℠, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in The Market Commentator℠ serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from The Milwaukee Company™.
 
In addition, The Market Commentator℠ may contain links to articles or other information that are contained on a third party website.  The Milwaukee Company does not endorse or accept responsibility for the content, or the use, of the website.  The Milwaukee Company assumes no liability for any inaccuracies, errors or omissions in or from any data or other information provided on the pages.  Thank you.
Read more

The Market Week in Review

The U.S. stock market finished the week lower after President Trump threatened to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%.  Interest rates also moved lower as the 10-year treasury yield fell from 2.53% to 2.45%.  Meanwhile, the spread between the 10-year treasury yield and the 2-year treasury yield grew narrower as it dropped from 0.21% to 0.19%.  The price of gold increased by 0.49% to $1,287 an ounce as the haven received support from Trump’s tariffs.  Consequently, the U.S. dollar index (DXY), which typically moves inversely to the price of gold, dropped from 97.48 to 97.32.  The price of crude oil finished the week slightly lower as it dropped 0.48% to $61.56 a barrel.

Index               Started Week         Ended Week         Change         Change %         YTD %
DJIA 24,815.0425,983.941,168.904.71%11.39%
Nasdaq 7,453.157,742.10288.953.88%16.68%
S&P 500 2,752.062,873.34121.284.41%14.62%
Russell 2000 1,465.491,514.3948.903.34%12.30%

This Week’s Economic Highlights

  • Initial unemployment claims fell by 2,000 to 228,000 for the week ending May 4th.  However, the more stable four-week average of initial claims rose 7,750 to 220,250 after spiking 37,000 two weeks ago.  Continuing unemployment claims, which lag initial claims by a week, rose by 12,000 to 1.68 million.
  • The U.S. trade deficit widened slightly in March as it increased from $49.3 billion to $50.0 billion.  More specifically, U.S. imports increased by 1.1% to $262 billion while exports increased by a small 1.0% to $212 billion.
  • The producer price index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, increased by 0.2% in April and 2.2% over the past year.  Core PPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, increased by a more significant 0.4% in April yet over the past year has also increased by 2.2%.
  • The consumer price index (CPI), a measure of retail inflation, increased by 0.3% in April and 2.0% over the past year.  Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, increased by a more moderate 0.1% in April and 2.1% over the past year.

Quote

“Please remember that what made you great is not appropriate for the next generation.”

– Richard Hamming

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Important Disclosures:  Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly from The Market Commentator℠, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in The Market Commentator℠ serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from The Milwaukee Company™.
 
In addition, The Market Commentator℠ may contain links to articles or other information that are contained on a third party website.  The Milwaukee Company does not endorse or accept responsibility for the content, or the use, of the website.  The Milwaukee Company assumes no liability for any inaccuracies, errors or omissions in or from any data or other information provided on the pages.  Thank you.
Read more

The Market Week in Review

The U.S. stock market finished the week relatively flat as better than expected jobs data was offset by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s concerns on slowing inflation.  Interest rates edged slightly higher as the 10-year treasury yield increased from 2.50% to 2.53%, while the spread between the 10-year treasury yield and the 2-year treasury yield was unchanged at 0.21%.  The price of gold dropped 0.65% to $1,280 an ounce as the Fed’s decision to leave the Fed’s fund rate unchanged outweighed the boost it received from better than expected jobs data.  Meanwhile the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which typically moves inversely to the price of gold, also dropped from 98.03 to 97.48 as better than expected jobs data outweighed the Fed’s decision to leave the Fed’s fund rate unchanged.  The price of crude oil fell 1.56% to $61.85 a barrel as U.S. crude oil inventories hit their highest levels since September of 2017.

Index               Started Week         Ended Week         Change         Change %         YTD %
DJIA 24,815.0425,983.941,168.904.71%11.39%
Nasdaq 7,453.157,742.10288.953.88%16.68%
S&P 500 2,752.062,873.34121.284.41%14.62%
Russell 2000 1,465.491,514.3948.903.34%12.30%

This Week’s Economic Highlights

  • Consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. economic activity, realized its largest one month increase in ten years of 0.9% in March.  Meanwhile personal incomes only increased a moderate 0.1% in March, which dropped the savings rate to 6.5% as consumer spending outpaced personal income.
  • Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the inflation indicator that is most closely followed by the Federal Reserve, increased 0.1% in March.  Year-over-year, core PCE has grown at a rate of 1.6%, its lowest since September of 2017.
  • The ISM manufacturing index continues to trend lower as it drops from 55.3% in March to 52.8% in April.  (Any reading above 50% indicates more manufacturing companies are expanding than shrinking.)
  • The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to leave the Fed’s Fund rate range unchanged at the 2.25% to 2.50% level.  In support of their decision, many Fed officials feel that the economy is growing “at a solid rate”, despite a recent slowdown in inflation.
  • Initial unemployment claims were unchanged at 230,000 for the week ending April 27th after spiking by 37,000 the week prior.  However, the more stable four week moving average of initial claims increased by 6,500 to 212,500.  Continuing unemployment claims, which lag initial claims by a week, rose a slight 17,000 to 1.67 million.
  • The U.S. added a solid 263,000 jobs in April and dropped the unemployment rate to a 49-year low of 3.6%.  Meanwhile wage growth, as measured by the average hourly pay, continues to grow at an above average annual rate of 3.2% and currently sits at $27.77 an hour.

Tidbit

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) have been discussing a new form of quantitative easing which they refer to as a “standing repo facility”.  The standing repo facility would allow banks to exchange treasuries for their reserves and would aid in the effort to shrink the Federal Reserve balance sheet and increase liquidity during difficult economic times.

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Important Disclosures:  Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly from The Market Commentator℠, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in The Market Commentator℠ serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from The Milwaukee Company™.
 
In addition, The Market Commentator℠ may contain links to articles or other information that are contained on a third party website.  The Milwaukee Company does not endorse or accept responsibility for the content, or the use, of the website.  The Milwaukee Company assumes no liability for any inaccuracies, errors or omissions in or from any data or other information provided on the pages.  Thank you.
Read more

The Market Week in Review

The U.S. stock market finished the week mostly higher as overall positive corporate earnings and better than expected economic data drove major U.S. stock indexes to all-time highs (other than the DJIA).  Interest rates dropped amid better than expected GDP data as the 10-year treasury yield fell from 2.56% to 2.50%.  The spread between the 10-year treasury yield and the 2-year treasury yield widened by 2 basis points to 0.21%.  The price of gold increased by 0.81% to $1,288.20 an ounce, which can also be attributed to the better than expected GDP data.  However, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which typically moves inversely to the price of gold, increased from 97.40 to 98.03 as its depreciating peers outweighed the headwinds of positive economic data.  The price of crude oil fell 1.82% to $62.83 a barrel after President Trump said that he “called up” OPEC and told them oil prices need to come down, however OPEC has denied discussing this.

Index               Started Week         Ended Week         Change         Change %         YTD %
DJIA 24,815.0425,983.941,168.904.71%11.39%
Nasdaq 7,453.157,742.10288.953.88%16.68%
S&P 500 2,752.062,873.34121.284.41%14.62%
Russell 2000 1,465.491,514.3948.903.34%12.30%

This Week’s Economic Highlights

  • After surging 11.8% in February, existing home sales fell 4.9% in March to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.21 million.  Over the trailing twelve months existing home sales are still down 5.4%.  The median price of existing homes sold in March was $259,400, which is up 3.9% from a year ago.
  • Contrary to existing home sales, new home sales jumped 4.5% in March to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 692,000.  Year-over-year new home sales are up 3.0%, however the median sales price is down 9.7% to $302,700.
  • After reaching near all-time lows the week prior, initial unemployment claims spiked by 37,000 to a total of 230,000 for the week ending April 20th.  However, its less volatile four-week moving average only increased by 4,500 to 206,000.  Continuing unemployment claims, which lag initial claims by a week increased by a very moderate 1,000 to 1.66 million.
  • Durable goods orders rose by 2.7% for the month of March as demand for transportation goods (i.e. automobiles, planes etc.) spiked.  However, transportation goods tend to add volatility to durable goods due to their inconsistent demand from month to month.  That said, when excluding transportation orders, durable goods orders still rose a strong 1.3%.
  • For the first quarter of 2019, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a relatively strong annual rate of 3.2%.  The largest factors driving GDP higher were a 3.2% increase in government spending as well as strong increases in inventory and trade.

Quote

“There is nothing reliable to be learned about making money.  If there were, study would be intense, and everyone with a positive IQ would be rich.”

– John Kenneth Galbraith

Like what you read? Subscribe to our mailing list and receive notifications when new content is posted.

* indicates required
Interested Posts

Follow us on social media!

Important Disclosures:  Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly from The Market Commentator℠, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in The Market Commentator℠ serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from The Milwaukee Company™.
 
In addition, The Market Commentator℠ may contain links to articles or other information that are contained on a third party website.  The Milwaukee Company does not endorse or accept responsibility for the content, or the use, of the website.  The Milwaukee Company assumes no liability for any inaccuracies, errors or omissions in or from any data or other information provided on the pages.  Thank you.
Read more