Syria’s Regime Change Reorders Geopolitical Risk For Middle East

It happened gradually, then suddenly. In a stunning development over the weekend, Syrian rebel groups overthrew the dictator Bashar al-Assad, who reportedly has fled to Russia. Although almost no one anticipated such a rapid power change, everyone agrees that the implications are far-reaching for the region and beyond.

There are more questions than answers at the moment. Here’s a quick recap of a select batch of initial observations from various sources as Syria enters a new era, one that’s uncertain with potentially positive and negative aftershocks felt around the world.

Historic opportunity, with risks: “The fall of the Assad regime less than two weeks into a coordinated assault by a broad array of opposition groups has, with shocking speed, changed the map and power balance in the Middle East and beyond,” notes Rich Outzen, a geopolitical consultant and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “The Iranian hegemonic project in Syria, too, has ended, and with it Hezbollah’s privileged position. While the future of Russian bases, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in northeast Syria, interim governance, counter-terror activities, and Syria’s new role in the region may take months to take shape, it is clear today that Syria will be ruled by an opposition coalition with the support of a majority of Syrians.”

Power vacuum in Syria is a new risk: “We are aware that the chaotic and dynamic circumstances on the ground in Syria could give Isis space to find the ability to become active, to plan external operations, and we’re determined to work with those partners to continue to degrade their capabilities,” says Deputy US Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Daniel Shapiro. Meanwhile, the US launched airstrikes against ISIS camps in Syria on Sunday.

The fall of Syria’s regime is a blow for Russia and Iran’s geostrategic interests in the region: “Syria is [Russia’s] only real foothold in the Middle East and the Mediterranean,” says Eugene Rumer, director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The rebel victory has become “part of the price they are paying for the war in Ukraine.” Meanwhile, “Iran’s deterrence thinking is really shattered by events in Gaza, by events in Lebanon and definitely by developments in Syria,” says a senior diplomat from the United Arab Emirates. Ray Takey, a senior Fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, observes: “This is one of the most consequential setbacks for the Islamic Republic since the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988).”

The overthrow of the Assad regime is a win for Turkey, which shares a border with Syria: Turkey’s President Erdogan has been the key supporter of Syria’s armed Islamist opposition groups. But there are risks as well. “The first risk that Turkey would want to avoid at all cost is the territorial disintegration of Syria, with different power structures vying to obtain autonomy on their territory,” advises Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies.

Regime change in Syria benefits Israel: The overthrow of the Syrian leader, who received critical support from Tehran, marks a sharp decline for Iran as a regional power by removing of the members of the so-called axis of resistance. Taking advantage of the power vacuum, the Israeli military captured territory on the Syrian side of the border in the Golan Heights on Sunday. “The collapse of the Assad regime, the tyranny in Damascus, offers great opportunity,” says Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu, “but also is fraught with significant dangers.”

The rebel group that’s taken control of Syria raises questions about what comes next for the country and its complex interactions that change will unleash with its neighbors: “The main rebel group is an offshoot of al-Qaeda and although its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has made much of his break from jihadist extremism, it remains to be seen whether the liberation he engineered was for all Syrians as he has declared or a tactic to deflect criticism and opposition,” writes Steven A. Cook at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Jolani’s record from Syria’s Idlib Governorate, which was under HTS (with Turkish patronage) control, is mixed. He seems to have learned the lessons of the Islamic State and eschewed the most severe forms of political control, but HTS still ruled with an iron fist. Even as HTS fighters liberated Assad’s prisons, Jolani’s opponents were bearing witness to the abuses of his own jails.” Meanwhile: “Beyond Syria’s borders, but connected to the issue of Syria’s internal stability, is the reaction of leaders in the region, most of whom had welcomed Assad back into the fold in recent years. The Emiratis, Saudis, Jordanians, and Egyptians are deeply opposed to the accumulation of Islamist political power. To expect these governments to sit idly by while HTS organizes its rule in Damascus is to ignore much of the recent history of the Middle East.”