November 29, 2025 Market Update

Market Recap: Directions Needed.

Stocks trended higher once again during the abbreviated holiday week as investors continued to weigh the shifting odds of a rate cut and the reality of high valuations.  Trading volume was light, which is typical for Thanksgiving week, and the mood remained cautious as investors looked for a clearer sense of where markets and the economy are headed.

In the bond market, yields edged lower as recent inflation data supported the idea that interest rates will continue to fall.  Treasury trading was orderly, and credit markets were calm, giving bond traders time to reassess the broader rate backdrop.

For now, Mr. Market appears content to wait for directions from its GPS app before deciding which way to go.

Market Performance.

Market Commentary: Reading the Tea Leaves.

This past week investors gave another round of mixed signals on the Federal Reserve’s next move.  Odds of a rate cut have been inching higher, but the path toward that outcome has been anything but smooth.  Much of the recent volatility stems from conflicting commentary from Federal Reserve officials, which has kept traders guessing.  

New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller have expressed support for a rate cut following the Fed’s December 19 meeting, because a softening labor market has become a greater risk than inflation.  Other Fed officials, including Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins, have suggested they still want more evidence before cutting rates. 

As thing now stands, the futures market puts the odds of a December rate cut at greater than 80%.  Rate cut or no, investors should prepare for shifting narratives, stay grounded in fundamentals, and avoid letting week-to-week noise knock you off course.

In Case You Missed It. Shoppers Bring Their A game.

Thanksgiving Weekend is the equivalent of the Super Bowl for retailers. 15–20% of all holiday spending is compressed into a single 5 days, with more than half the country participating in-store and online.